VLCC Freight Rate Soar by 600%
The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia pushed the VLCC freight rate up sharply. After Saudi Arabia chartered up to 25 VLCCs, its freight rate has soared by over 600%, even once exceeding 400,000 USD/day.
At present, VLCC’s average freight rate has soared from 30,000 USD/day in mid-February to 210,000 USD/day last week, up 600%.On March 13, a 15-year-old VLCC “Princess Mary” owned by Hellenic Tankers was chartered by Reliance Industries, with a daily rent up to 411,890 USD.
One of the main reasons that drove the surge in freight rate was that Bahri had chartered 25 ships last week, boosting the demand for VLCC.
Saudi Arabia has announced to slash oil price and boost production and exports, which has led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. The WTI oil price has dropped from 45.90 USD per barrel on March 5 to about 31 USD. From April 1, Saudi Aramco will supply 12 million barrels of oil to the market every day. In order to meet the demand of oil transportation, Saudi Arabia had to charter more VLCC.
Among the 25 VLCCs chartered by Bahri, 10 will head to the Gulf of Mexico and 4 are most likely to sail to Europe. Another 10 will discharge oil at the Port of Ain Sukhna through the Sumed pipeline, which transports crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea through Egypt. The oil may eventually be sold to Europe. At present, there is no VLCC to be used for the market of the eastern world. This is a clear signal that Saudi Arabia is competing with Russia to increase sales in the western world.
The number of chartered VLCC reached 92 last week, compared with 56 the previous week. In 2020, the average number of chartered VLCC is about 50 per week, which is similar to the weekly average in recent years. However, given the weak demand for oil worldwide, it is impossible to maintain such a high level of chartering in the next few weeks.
According to Goldman Sachs, the increase in oil production may lead to a surplus of about 6 million barrels per day by April. The shipping broker Gibson reckoned that there is a possibility of 4.9 million barrels per day of excess oil production.
What changes will take place in the future market remains to be seen. However, what is certain is that it is difficult to predict the tanker market in the next few weeks. The development of VLCC market depends on the following factors: how long will Saudi Arabia’s output surge last? Can Saudi Arabia and Russia reach an agreement? How many tankers will be used for floating storage? How much shale gas reserves in the United States will decrease and how fast?
沙特抢租25艘！VLCC运价飙涨600%
沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的石油价格战推动VLCC运价直线上升，在沙特一口气抢租多达25艘VLCC之后，VLCC运价飙涨超过600%，甚至一度突破了40万美元/天。
目前，VLCC平均运价已经从2月中旬的30000美元/天增至上周的21万美元/天，涨幅高达600%。
3月13日，希腊Hellenic Tankers拥有的一艘船龄15年VLCC“Princess Mary”号获得了印度信实工业的租船合同，日租金竟然高达41.189万美元。
刺激VLCC运价飙涨的一个主要因素在于沙特阿拉伯国家航运公司（Bahri）一周之内“抢租”了多达25艘船，推升VLCC需求。
沙特阿拉伯已大幅降低了油价，并宣布打算增加产量和出口，这导致全球油价暴跌，WTI原油价格从3月5日的每桶45.90美元跌至目前的每桶31美元左右。从4月1月起，沙特阿美每日将向市场提供1200万桶石油。为了运输出口的原油，沙特阿拉伯不得不额外租用更多VLCC。
在Bahri租入的25艘VLCC中，有10艘将前往美国墨西哥湾，还有4艘最有可能前往欧洲。另有10艘VLCC用于在Sumed管道入口Ain Sukhna卸货，该管道将原油通过埃及从红海运输到地中海，这些原油最终可能将出售给欧洲。目前没有任何一艘现货VLCC将用于东方目的地。“这是一个明确的信号，表明沙特阿拉伯正在与俄罗斯直接竞争，针对西方客户增加销售量。”
上周VLCC租船数量达到了92艘，前一周则有56艘。2020年至今，VLCC每周平均租船数量约为50艘，这一数字与近年来的每周平均值相似。不过，Poten认为：“由于全球石油需求仍然相当严峻，未来几周不可能维持如此高的租船水平。”
根据高盛（Goldman Sachs）的预测，到今年4月，石油产量增加可能导致过剩产量创纪录，达到约600万桶/天。不过，船舶经纪公司Gibson预计，实际存在490万桶/天过剩石油产量的可能性，“如果在全年余下时间里保持这样的产量水平，过剩产量将达到惊人的370万桶/天，虽然这样的情况能够持续下去似乎是不可想象的”。
未来市场会发生什么变化还有待观察，但可以肯定的是，很难预测未来几周油船市场的前景。VLCC市场的发展取决于几个因素：沙特阿拉伯产量飙升将持续多长时间？沙特与俄罗斯是否能达成协议？将有多少艘油船被用于浮式储油？以及美国页岩气储量将减少多少，减少的速度又有多快？”
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