Panama Canal Pauses Draft Reduction, While Daily Transits Begin to Drop 巴拿马运河暂缓降吃水，通航量却开始下降

In late August, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced plans to gradually tighten the maximum allowable draft for vessels transiting the Neopanamax Locks. The planned draft limit of 47.5 ft (14.48 m), scheduled to take effect on 1 October, drew wide-spread market attention.

Nevertheless, in early September, the ACP released a new advisory to put this adjustment on hold. At present, the maximum permitted draft for ships using the Neopanamax Locks remains at 48 ft (14.63 m). After reassessing water levels in Gatun Lake and reviewing weather forecasts, the ACP decided not to roll out the further draft reduction as originally planned.

For vessels passing through the Neopanamax Locks, the suspension of draft restrictions eases loading constraints for the time being. For large container ships, LNG carriers and some fully-loaded bulk carriers, even a 0.5-foot difference in draft translates to extra cargo capacity and improved transport efficiency. Even so, the canal’s underlying water-resource pressure has not been resolved.

8月下旬，巴拿马运河管理局（ACP）宣布将逐步收紧新巴拿马克船闸（Neopanamax Locks）船舶最大允许吃水。原定于10月1日起实施的47.5英尺（14.48米）吃水限制，也因此受到市场关注。

不过就在9月初，ACP又发布最新通告，决定暂缓这一调整。目前通过新巴拿马克船闸的船舶，最大允许吃水仍维持在48英尺（14.63米）水平。ACP表示，在重新评估加通湖（Gatun Lake）水位以及未来天气预报后，决定暂不执行原定的进一步降吃水计划。

对于需要通过新巴拿马型船闸的船舶来说，暂缓降吃水至少暂时减轻了装载方面的压力。毕竟对于大型集装箱船、LNG船以及部分满载散货船来说，哪怕只有0.5英尺的差距，也意味着额外的装载空间和更高的运输效率。但运河目前的水资源压力并没有因此消失。

Daily Transit Capacity Is Tightening

Almost in parallel with the deferred draft cut, the ACP has reduced the canal’s overall transit capacity as a water-saving measure.

Under the ACP’s previously-announced water-conservation plan, the number of vessels allowed to transit the canal each day is being lowered in phases:

• Daily transits fell from 36 to 34 vessels in early September;
• A further reduction to 32 vessels per day will take effect on 15 

There has been a notable shift in policy logic. Earlier measures focused on draft limits to conserve water, preserving vessel loading capacity at the cost of fewer permitted transits each day.

• Reducing draft primarily limits how much cargo each individual vessel can carry.
• Cutting daily transits directly constrains total canal throughput and tends to extend vessel waiting times.

For ship-owners, fewer available transit slots mean closer monitoring of booking status and actual queue times, especially for voyages with tight vessel schedules.

Market effects have already appeared in the priority-slot auction market. In August this year, a Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) operated by a Korean company secured priority canal passage for a record-high bid of USD 5.3 million.

This auction took place after the ACP had already notified the shipping industry of upcoming cuts to daily transits starting in September. Market participants expected growing scarcity for transit slots. Meanwhile, active LPG trade flows from the US Gulf Coast to Asia drove strong competition among Asian energy-chartered vessels for limited priority slots.

For VLGC operators, missing agreed delivery windows may trigger default risks under spot-trade contracts, alongside extra vessel-hire and fuel expenses. Should vessels choose to reroute via Cape Horn in South America, voyages can be extended by several weeks. The record auction price reflects the scarcity value of canal transit capacity as well as how ship-owners and cargo-owners value transport timeliness.

通航量开始收紧

与延期降吃水几乎同时进行的，是运河通航能力的下调。

根据ACP此前公布的节水方案，巴拿马运河每日通航船舶数量已经开始逐步减少。9月初每日通航量从36艘降至34艘，而9月15日起将进一步降至32艘。

从近期安排来看，此前的思路是通过降低船舶吃水来节约用水；而现在则是在尽量维持船舶装载能力的同时，通过减少每日过闸船数来控制耗水总量。降低吃水，主要影响的是单船装载量；减少每日过闸船舶数量，则会直接影响运河的整体通过能力，并可能增加等待时间。

对于船东来说，通航名额减少后，预约情况和实际排队时间就更值得关注，尤其是船期比较紧的航次。

其中的影响在预约市场已经有过体现，今年8月，一艘由韩国企业运营的VLGC支付创纪录的530万美元，拿下运河的优先通行权。

当时ACP已经宣布将于9月起进一步下调每日通航量，市场普遍预期后续过闸名额将更加紧张。同时，美湾至亚洲LPG贸易保持活跃，多家亚洲能源企业的船舶集中竞争有限的优先通行名额。

对于VLGC而言，如果错过既定交货窗口，不仅可能面临现货贸易中的违约风险，还要承担额外的船租和燃油成本；若选择绕行南美合恩角，航程又可能增加数周。在这种情况下，高额拍卖价格实际上反映的是运河通行资源的稀缺价值，以及船东和货主对运输时效的定价。

Gatun Lake Water Levels Remain the Key Variable

The ACP’s postponement of stricter draft rules does not signal that drought risks have passed. All current adjustments remain subject to ongoing assessments of lake water levels and rainfall forecasts. Senior ACP officials quoted by multiple international media outlets warn that if rainfall in the coming months continues to fall short of forecasts, further cuts to daily transits may become necessary. Under a pessimistic scenario, daily transits could drop as low as 27 vessels.

During the severe drought of 2023, daily canal transits fell to roughly 22 vessels. Long queues built-up for waiting ships, and some ship-owners had to reroute vessels via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope, creating measurable disruption to shipping market capacity.

Gatun Lake’s water level remains the core benchmark guiding subsequent regulatory adjustments by the ACP. It is important to note that the proposed 47.5-foot draft limit has only been suspended, not cancelled. If rainfall over the coming weeks remains insufficient, these stricter draft curbs could be reinstated.

运河水位仍然是后续变化的关键

ACP此次推迟降吃水，并不是因为干旱风险已经解除。目前的调整仍然建立在对水位和降雨情况的持续评估之上，近期多家国际媒体援引ACP管理层表态称，如果未来几个月降雨继续低于预期，运河甚至可能进一步削减每日通航量，最悲观情况下可能降至27艘/天。

2023年干旱期间，运河每日通航量一度降至22艘左右，大量船舶排队等待，部分船东被迫绕行苏伊士运河或好望角，市场运力因此受到明显影响。

目前ACP仍将加通湖水位作为后续政策调整的重要依据。因此，47.5英尺限制目前只是暂缓，并没有被取消。一旦未来数周降雨情况不理想，相关限制仍有重新启动的可能。

What Shipowners Should Watch in Q4

Looking ahead over the coming months, ship-owners should monitor more indicators than only published draft limits. Three core areas deserve close attention:

Stability of daily transit volumes If the daily transit cap of 32 vessels is reduced further, vessel waiting times and costs for priority transit slots will likely rise. Liner shipping companies, LNG carriers, and vessels operating US-Gulf-origin export trades will feel the greatest impact.

Gatun Lake water levels and regional rainfall Any future tightening of restrictions hinges on Gatun Lake’s water level and watershed rainfall. For vessels planning to transit the Panama Canal in Q4, rainfall trends in the coming month may carry greater practical significance than current draft limits.

Ongoing official advisories issued by the ACP Both maximum permissible draft and daily transit caps can be revised again as water conditions evolve.

四季度过运河，船东要看哪些变化

从目前情况来看，未来几个月船东需要重点关注的已经不只是吃水数字本身。

首先要看每日通航量还能否维持在32艘。

如果32艘/天进一步下降，等待时间和优先通行成本都可能上升，对班轮公司、LNG船以及美湾出口航线影响尤其明显。

其次看加通湖水位变化。

后续限制是否进一步调整，仍要看加通湖水位以及流域降雨情况。对于计划第四季度通过巴拿马运河的船舶而言，未来一个月的降雨情况可能比当前的吃水限制更值得关注。

此外，还要持续关注ACP后续通告。

吃水上限和每日通航量都可能随着水位变化再次调整。

An Evolving Operational Environment at the Canal

The sequence of announcements from the ACP — from the planned further-draft cut at end-August to the September suspension of the 47.5-foot rule — demonstrates that canal policies will keep adapting to real-time hydrological conditions.

Nevertheless, underlying water-supply challenges persist; only the policy response has shifted. While vessels may still load to the 48-foot draft threshold, reduced daily transits are creating mounting pressure for booking and queueing.

Accordingly, ship-owners arranging Panama Canal transits for the fourth quarter should evaluate not only applicable draft limits, but also daily transit caps, booking availability, and evolving Gatun Lake water levels.

通航情况仍在调整

从8月底宣布进一步降吃水，到9月初暂缓47.5英尺限制，ACP近期的调整说明，运河后续政策仍会随着水情变化而变化。

但从ACP近期动作来看，问题并没有消失，只是应对方式发生了变化。47.5英尺限制暂缓后，船舶当前仍可按照48英尺吃水条件安排；但每日通航量下降，船舶等待和预约压力正在增加。

因此，四季度计划经巴拿马运河的船舶，除了核对吃水限制，还需要关注每日通航量、预约情况和加通湖水位变化。

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References:

ACP,Panama Canal Authority Advisory to Shipping.

Safety4Sea,Panama Canal postpones reducing draft for vessels transiting the Neopanamax Locks.

Reuters,Panama Canal to cap daily transits, anticipating severe El Niño.

Financial Times,2Shipping through Panama Canal faces new cuts as water dries up.

Reuters,Panama Canal finds its water solution, but it's 5 years away.

*Disclaimer: All data, viewpoints and analysis within this article are compiled from publicly-available sources and industry research reports. The content is intended solely for industry-wide exchange and reference purposes and shall not constitute investment advice or binding operational recommendations. Shipping markets are subject to high uncertainty driven by macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical events, weather patterns and other external variables. When forming operational decisions, readers are advised to carry out independent judgement considering their own fleet profile, risk tolerance, and latest real-time market developments.

*免责声明：本文所载数据及分析均基于公开信息和行业研究报告，仅供行业交流与参考，不构成任何投资建议或操作承诺。航运市场受宏观经济、地缘政治、天气变化等多重因素影响，存在不确定性。读者在制定具体经营决策时，应结合自身船队结构、风险承受能力及最新市场动态综合判断。