Maldistribution of Containers Affects Freight Volume in 2020

    According to Drewry, the maldistribution of containers will affect the freight volume in Q2 2020. Troubled by the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s exports have nosedived, and containers have been stuck at Chinese ports since February. Worse, the suspense of marine transportation has further limited the flow of containers. With many countries imposing lockdown nationwide, it has become more and more difficult for shipping companies to reallocate containers.

    The CAx (Container Availability Index), released by Xchange, calculatess the availability of containers at global major ports. A CAx greater than 0.5 indicates a container surplus, while less than 0.5 indicates a shortage. In March 2020, the CAx of 40-foot containers at Shanghai Port was 0.66 and Rotterdam was 0.44, compared with 0.47 and 0.70 respectively in the same period last year, showing a container surplus at Chinese ports and shortage in Europe.

    Although shipping companies have begun to reallocate containers, it will still take some time to return to normal considering the current situation. It is likely that shipping companies may charge container allocation fees again. Therefore, the general transportation expenses are expected to increase by 8-10%, especially for the trans-Pacific route.

    With Chinese companies resuming work, containers will be transported from Chinese ports to main export destinations, so as to ease the shortage of containers. However, the spread of the virus in other regions will have a negative impact on container transport. According to Drewry, the global pandemic is expected to be under control in the Q3 this year and the shipping industry will return to normal early next year.

中国堆积，海外短缺，集装箱分布不平衡将影响2020年货运量

  德路里预计，集装箱设备的分布不平衡将对今年第二季度货运量产生影响。受新冠肺炎疫情影响，中国出口缩减严重，集装箱设备从2月起停滞在中国各个港口。运输停滞叠加停航进一步限制了集装箱设备的流转，船公司难以确保在其他地方有足够的集装箱使用。随着多国实施封锁，船公司对集装箱设备的重新调配变得越来越困难。

  Xchange发布的CAx（集装箱可用性指数）可以量化全球主要港口的集装箱可用性。CAx 值大于0.5表示集装箱剩余，小于0.5则表示短缺。2020年3月，上海港40英尺集装箱的CAx值为0.66，鹿特丹港为0.44，而去年同期分别为 0.47和0.70，这表明中国港口集装箱堆积较多，而欧洲则出现集装箱设备短缺。

  虽然船公司已经开始重新调配集装箱，但以目前的海运状况，仍需要一些时间才能恢复正常。船公司以前曾收取过集装箱调配费，而现在船公司有可能再次征收。因此，综合运费预计将增长8-10％，跨太平洋航线将较为明显。

  随着中国的复工复产，集装箱将从中国各港口运送到其主要出口目的地，从而缓解集装箱设备短缺问题。然而，疫情在其他地区的扩散会对集装箱运输产生不利影响。Drewry 预测的乐观情形是，疫情的全球大流行将在今年第三季度得到遏制，海运将在明年初恢复正常。