Russian Grain Exports Shift North: Can Baltic and Arctic Ports Handle the Additional Volumes?

On September 21, Reuters, citing shipping and grain industry sources, reported that Russian companies are converting parts of existing fertilizer, coal, and other bulk cargo terminals at ports including Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg, and Murmansk to handle grain exports.

9月21日，路透社援引航运和粮食行业人士报道，俄罗斯企业正在改造乌斯季卢加（Ust-Luga）、圣彼得堡（‌St. Petersburg Port‌）和摩尔曼斯克（Murmansk‌）等港口部分原本用于化肥、煤炭及其他散货的码头，使其具备粮食装运能力。

The move comes as grain shipments through Russia’s traditional southern export routes, particularly the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, have been disrupted, leading to a noticeable decline in outbound volumes through those gateways.

背后的直接原因，是近期黑海和亚速海的粮食运输受到干扰，传统南部出口通道的发运量明显下降。

As southern export routes face growing constraints, some grain flows are now seeking alternative outlets, with rail cargo increasingly redirected from traditional Black Sea terminals toward Baltic and northern ports.

近期南部出口通道受到影响后，部分粮食开始寻找新的出海路径，铁路运输方向也从传统黑海港口转向波罗的海和北方港口。

How Much Cargo Has Shifted from the Black Sea to Northern Ports?

黑海少了多少货，北方港口正在接多少

During the 2025/26 marketing season, Russia exported approximately 46.3 million tonnes of grain through Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, accounting for around 90% of its seaborne grain exports.

By comparison, Russian Baltic ports handled only around 1 million tonnes of grain exports during the same period. This highlights the fact that northern ports previously played only a limited role in Russia’s grain export network and were not equipped to handle volumes comparable to southern terminals.

However, this pattern has begun to change.

2025/26销售季，俄罗斯通过黑海和亚速海港口出口了约4630万吨粮食，占其海运粮食出口的约90%。相比之下，俄罗斯波罗的海港口当季只出口了约100万吨。换句话说，北方港口此前并没有承担与南部港口相当的粮食运输任务。

According to data from Ukrainian agricultural market analysts, during the first ten days of September, Russian Baltic ports became among the country’s main grain export hubs. Ust-Luga handled approximately 177,000 tonnes, while Vysotsk handled around 95,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, grain shipments from traditional southern ports, including Novorossiysk, Azov, and Taman, declined significantly during the same period.

进入今年9月，乌克兰农业市场机构统计显示，9月前10天，俄罗斯波罗的海港口已经成为主要粮食出口节点之一，其中乌斯季卢加（Ust-Luga）装运约17.7万吨，维索茨克（Vysotsk）约9.5万吨；同期诺沃罗西斯克、亚速和塔曼等传统南部港口的粮食发运则明显下降。

Fertilizer Terminals Begin Handling Grain as Port Functions Change

化肥码头开始装粮，港口的角色正在变化

Among northern ports, Ust-Luga has attracted the most attention.

The port received grain shipments for the first time in August this year. Industry sources said that in September, around 260,000 tonnes of grain had been allocated for rail transport to the terminal, with destinations including Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

In practical terms, part of the grain previously exported from Russia’s southern agricultural regions through Black Sea ports is now being redirected by rail toward the northwest before being loaded onto vessels at Baltic terminals.

乌斯季卢加（Ust-Luga）是目前最值得关注的节点之一，今年8月开始，它首次接收粮食。行业人士称，9月份已经有约26万吨粮食通过铁路申请运往该码头，目的地包括埃及和沙特阿拉伯。也就是说，原本从俄罗斯南部粮食产区经黑海港口出海的部分货流，现在开始改成先走铁路向西北，再从波罗的海装船。

The change becomes clearer when looking at Russia’s traditional cargo flows.

For years, Black Sea and Azov Sea ports have handled the majority of Russia’s grain exports. Terminals such as Novorossiysk typically receive wheat and other agricultural products from southern farming regions before loading them onto bulk carriers bound for markets in North Africa, the Middle East, and other regions.

By contrast, Baltic ports have traditionally focused more on fertilizer, coal, and other bulk commodities.

The conversion of some of these terminals to grain handling represents a restructuring of Russia’s logistics network, combining previously separate cargo systems, port infrastructure, and transport routes.

这背后的变化，可以从俄罗斯原有的货物流向看得更清楚。黑海和亚速海港口长期承担俄罗斯粮食出口的主要任务，诺沃罗西斯克等南部港口装运的小麦等粮食，通常从俄罗斯南部农业区集中到港，再由散货船运往北非、中东等市场。而波罗的海港口原本承担的则更多是化肥、煤炭以及其他大宗散货，现在其中一部分码头开始接粮，实际上就是在把原本属于不同港口、不同货种的物流体系重新拼接起来。

St. Petersburg Port is currently playing more of a supporting role, with some terminals beginning to test grain operations. However, as the port’s existing activities are mainly concentrated on other bulk and general cargoes, its ability to provide continuous grain loading capacity remains to be seen.

From a shipowner’s perspective, this is not simply a case of “Black Sea grain moving to the Baltic.” A more accurate description is that Russian grain producers are seeking alternative rail export routes, while northern ports that previously handled fertilizer, coal, and other commodities are allocating part of their capacity to grain.

If this model continues, Russian grain cargoes may increasingly be distributed among different ports depending on season, logistics conditions, and market demand. This could create additional grain shipment opportunities from Ust-Luga, St. Petersburg, and Murmansk for dry bulk vessels.

圣彼得堡（‌St. Petersburg Port‌）目前更多承担补充作用，部分码头开始尝试粮食业务。但由于原有功能主要集中在其他散货和件杂货领域，短期内仍需要观察其仓储、装卸和连续装船能力。

所以，从船东角度看，这次变化并不是简单的“黑海粮食换到波罗的海”。更准确地说，是俄罗斯南部的粮食货源开始寻找新的铁路出口通道，而原本以化肥、煤炭、矿石为主的北方港口，则拿出部分能力承接这些新增粮食。如果这种模式持续下去，未来可能看到的是同一批俄罗斯粮食货源，在不同季节、不同港口之间重新分配，而乌斯季卢加（Ust-Luga）、圣彼得堡（‌St. Petersburg Port‌）和摩尔曼斯克（Murmansk‌）则可能出现更多粮食散货船需求。

Why Is Murmansk Entering Russia’s Grain Export Network?

摩尔曼斯克为什么也开始进入粮食出口名单

Murmansk is another northern port attracting attention.

Historically, Murmansk Commercial Seaport has focused mainly on coal, minerals, and metals, with an annual handling capacity of up to approximately 24 million tonnes. The port has announced plans to increase grain export operations from October.

One of Murmansk’s key advantages is its location: the port remains ice-free throughout the year and is capable of handling relatively large bulk carriers.

In September, a Chinese-operated bulk carrier loaded potash fertilizer at Murmansk for shipment to Southeast Asia, demonstrating that the port’s bulk terminals and rail connections are already supporting new cargo flows.

摩尔曼斯克（Murmansk‌）商业海港此前主要处理煤炭、矿石和金属，年综合处理能力最高约2400万吨。港口方面已经表示，计划从10月开始增加粮食出口业务。

摩尔曼斯克还有一个明显特点：港口全年不封冻，可以处理较大型散货船。今年9月，一艘中国运营的干货船还从摩尔曼斯克装载钾肥前往东南亚，说明当地散货码头和铁路体系已经在承担新的货物流向。

If grain exports continue to expand, Murmansk may become more than just a temporary alternative gateway.

For dry bulk operators, this could mean the emergence of new grain loading opportunities in northern Russia. Vessel size, draft restrictions, terminal loading efficiency, and rail delivery schedules will all influence turnaround times.

For cargoes originating from southern Russia, the additional inland distance required to move grain northward must also be weighed against maritime transport efficiency and port capabilities. This is a calculation that both traders and shipowners will need to reassess.

如果粮食业务继续增加，摩尔曼斯克承担的就不只是一个临时替代港口的角色。对于散货船而言，这意味着俄罗斯北方可能出现一批新的粮食装货需求。船型、吃水、码头装船效率以及铁路到港节奏，都会影响船舶在这里的周转时间。尤其是当粮食货源来自俄罗斯南部，而船却需要到北方港口装货时，陆路段增加的距离能否被海运端的运力和港口条件消化，是贸易商和船东都需要重新计算的问题。

Northern Ports Can Provide Additional Capacity, but Cannot Replace the Black Sea in the Short Term

北方港口可以分流，但短期难复制黑海规模

Industry estimates suggest Russian Baltic ports currently have grain handling capacity ranging from approximately 2 million to 7 million tonnes per year, depending on the facilities included.

By comparison, grain export capacity through Russia’s southern Black Sea and Azov Sea ports exceeds 60 million tonnes annually.

Even if Ust-Luga, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg, and other northern facilities fully utilize available spare capacity, they are unlikely to completely replace the scale of southern export infrastructure in the short term.

俄罗斯波罗的海港口的粮食处理能力，业内不同估算约为200万至700万吨/年；而俄罗斯南部黑海和亚速海港口的粮食处理能力超过6000万吨。即便把Ust-Luga、Vysotsk、圣彼得堡以及其他设施的闲置能力全部利用起来，也很难在短期内完全复制南部港口的规模。

The current shift is therefore better understood as a redistribution of Russia’s export logistics network.

所以，俄罗斯现在做的更像是一场港口和物流网络的重新分配。

Grain previously concentrated around Black Sea terminals must now travel longer inland distances by rail before reaching northern ports. Terminals need additional storage and loading capacity, rail operators need to handle increased grain traffic, and shipowners must reassess what vessel sizes, drafts, and loading efficiencies these ports can support.

原来集中在黑海的粮食，需要通过铁路被送往更远的北方，再由不同类型的散货码头装船。港口需要腾出仓储和装卸能力，铁路需要增加粮食车流，船东则需要重新评估这些港口能提供什么船型、什么吃水以及怎样的装货效率。

What Does This Mean for Dry Bulk Shipowners?

对散货船东来说，新的装货港意味着什么

In the past, shipowners transporting Russian grain could largely plan around several major Black Sea export ports.

The emergence of northern alternatives means cargo loading locations may become more dispersed.

Ust-Luga, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg, and Murmansk all have different port conditions, cargo origins, and operational characteristics. When fixing vessels for Russian grain trades, owners will need to consider:

• Rail delivery schedules;
• Grain storage availability;
• Berthing arrangements;
• Loading efficiency;
• Vessel draft requirements.

过去俄罗斯粮食船东可以围绕黑海几个主要出口港安排运力，现在则可能面对更分散的装货港。Ust-Luga、Vysotsk、圣彼得堡和摩尔曼斯克的港口条件并不完全相同，货源地也不同。船东在接订货时，需要把铁路到港节奏、粮食仓储能力、泊位安排以及船舶吃水一起考虑进去。

Voyage patterns may also change.

航程也会发生变化。

Moving grain from southern Russia to Murmansk before export involves significantly longer inland transportation compared with direct loading through southern ports.

For shipowners, the key questions will be whether these new loading ports can provide consistent cargo volumes and whether longer inland logistics chains affect cargo readiness and vessel scheduling.

If rail-based export routes become a long-term solution, vessel waiting times, ETA planning, and subsequent voyage arrangements will require further adjustment.

At the same time, converting terminals originally designed for fertilizer, coal, or minerals into grain export facilities will take time. Grain requires specific standards for storage, cleanliness, handling procedures, and cargo segregation. Having berths and rail connections does not automatically mean a terminal can immediately achieve the efficiency of an established grain export facility.

从俄罗斯南部产区把粮食运到摩尔曼斯克，再从北方装船出口，与传统的南部港口直装相比，货物在陆侧的运输距离明显增加。对船东而言，更直接的问题是：新的装货港是否能提供稳定货盘，以及额外陆运距离是否会影响货物备妥时间。如果铁路运输成为长期方案，船舶等待时间、ETA安排和下一港衔接都需要重新评估。

另外，港口从化肥、煤炭或矿石转做粮食，也需要时间。粮食对储存、清洁、装卸和货物隔离都有自己的要求，码头拥有泊位和铁路，并不意味着可以立即达到成熟粮食码头的作业效率。

Therefore, over the coming months, the key issue for shipping markets will not simply be whether a particular northern port starts loading grain.

The more important question is whether these converted terminals can establish stable rail supply chains and consistent vessel schedules.

If those conditions are gradually achieved, Baltic and Arctic ports may evolve from temporary alternatives during periods of Black Sea disruption into permanent supplementary nodes within Russia’s grain export network.

因此，接下来几个月，如果俄罗斯北方港口的粮食装船量继续增加，航运市场更值得看的并不是某一个港口“开始装粮”这条新闻本身，而是这些临时转换的码头能否形成稳定的铁路货源和连续船期。

一旦这两个条件逐步建立，波罗的海和北极港口承担的就可能不再只是黑海受阻期间的临时分流，而会成为俄罗斯粮食出口网络中新的补充节点。

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References

• Reuters: Russia adapts fertilizer, coal terminals in Baltic, Arctic ports to export Black Sea grain
• Reuters: Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted
• Sovecon: Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports in July–September at lowest level since 2010
• Interfax: Russia has no problem with moving grain exports - agriculture minister

E-PORTS作为面向全球船舶在港服务的数字化综合服务平台，可为船东提供全球各港口基础信息查询、当地代理对接、海事突发状况协调支持。若需要了解港口业务、当地作业惯例、政策及费用相关信息，可通过下述渠道联系。

We Chat / Whats App：+86 13816101982

E-mail：contact@e-ports.com

Disclaimer: The data and analysis contained in this article are based on publicly available information and industry research reports and are provided for industry discussion and reference purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or operational commitments. The shipping market is affected by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments, and weather conditions, and remains subject to uncertainty. Readers should make operational decisions based on their own fleet structure, risk tolerance, and the latest market developments.

*免责声明：本文所载数据及分析均基于公开信息和行业研究报告，仅供行业交流与参考，不构成任何投资建议或操作承诺。航运市场受宏观经济、地缘政治、天气变化等多重因素影响，存在不确定性。读者在制定具体经营决策时，应结合自身船队结构、风险承受能力及最新市场动态综合判断。