Two Active Typhoons Raise Navigation Risks Across the Northwest Pacific: Mekkhala Tracks Toward Japan as Newly Formed Hinnamnor Emerges Shipping Operators Advised to Closely Monitor Sea State Developments 双台风同时活跃！米克拉北上日本，海高斯接力生成，这些航线需留意天气变化

Late June marks the beginning of the peak typhoon season across the Northwest Pacific.

6月下旬，西北太平洋进入台风活跃期。

Typhoon Mekkhala, the seventh named storm of the year ( locally referred to as Francisco in the Philippines ), intensified rapidly and briefly reached super typhoon strength.Meanwhile, Typhoon Hinnamnor, the eighth named storm of 2026, formed on June 23, becoming the newly numbered tropical cyclone over the Northwest Pacific in 2026.

今年第7号台风“米克拉”（菲律宾命名：弗朗西斯科）近日迅速增强，一度达到超强台风级别。与此同时，今年第8号台风“海高斯”于6月23日生成，成为本年度西北太平洋最新编号台风。

Track forecasts released by multiple meteorological authorities indicate that neither cyclone may make direct landfall along China’s coastal areas. However, waters around the Philippine Sea, Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan could be continuously affected by tropical cyclone activities over the next few days.For shipping stakeholders, the primary concern is not whether the storms make landfall, but how changing sea conditions may affect vessel operations and schedules.operators should pay close attention to shifting sea conditions and the disruptions they may bring to vessel scheduling.

从目前各机构发布的路径预报来看，两个台风均不会直接登陆我国沿海，但菲律宾海、琉球群岛以及日本南部海域未来几天将持续受到热带气旋活动影响。对于航运市场而言，相比台风是否登陆，更需要关注相关海域风浪变化及其对船期安排带来的影响。

Dual Typhoon Activity Across the Northwest Pacific

双台风同舞

Mekkhala Strengthens Rapidly Before Turning Toward Japan

米克拉快速增强后转向日本方向

Mekkhala formed over the Northwest Pacific on June 19 and intensified quickly over the following days.

米克拉于6月19日在西北太平洋生成，随后迅速发展。

Latest data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows Mekkhala is expected to keep moving northward in the coming days. It will pass waters adjacent to the Ryukyu Islands before gradually approaching the southern coastline of Japan’s Honshu. Significant wave heights are expected to increase across waters east of the Philippines and around the Ryukyu Islands, so ocean-going vessels should adjust sailing schedules based on real-time meteorological updates.

香港天文台最新数据显示，米克拉未来数天将继续向北移动，经过琉球群岛附近海域后，逐步靠近日本本州南部沿海。菲律宾东侧海域以及琉球群岛附近海域浪高明显增加，远洋船舶需要根据实时天气情况调整航行计划。

Newly Formed Hinnamnor Adds Further Weather Uncertainty to the Western Pacific

海高斯生成，西太平洋再添新台风

As Mekkhala continues its northward movement, the 8th numbered typhoon Hinnamno came into formation on June 23.

就在米克拉北上的同时，第8号台风“海高斯”已于6月23日获得编号。

Based on existing track projections, Hinnamno’s activity zone may stay mainly within open waters of the Northwest Pacific, with no immediate signals that it will directly impact China’s coasts in the short term.

从现有路径预报看，海高斯未来活动区域仍以西北太平洋公海为主，短期内没有直接影响我国沿海的迹象。

Philippine Waters Remain a Key Area for Monitoring

菲律宾海域仍是未来重点区域

PAGASA has issued alerts warning of heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Batanes Islands, Cagayan Province and surrounding regions. Persistent downpours could lower operational efficiency at container yards, and waterlogging on partial roadways may disrupt cargo inbound and outbound transportation.

菲律宾气象局已提醒，巴丹群岛、卡加延省等地区将出现较强降雨和阵风天气。对于港口而言，持续降雨可能影响集装箱堆场作业效率，部分道路出现积水后，也可能影响货物进出港运输。

Key Ports Vulnerable to Tropical Weather Interference

需要重点关注的港口包括：

Basco Port

Located in the Batanes Islands, it stands as one of the ports closest to the weather warning zone. If wind and wave conditions intensify further, local passenger and cargo shipping plus nearshore vessel operations are likely to bear impacts first.

巴士科港（Basco）

位于巴丹群岛，是距离预警区域最近的港口之一。如果后续风浪进一步增强，当地客货运输和近海船舶运营可能首先受到影响。

Aparri Port

Sited along the northern coast of Cagayan Province, the area falls under heavy rainfall warnings. Local port logistics efficiency may suffer setbacks if flash floods or road blockages occur.

阿帕里港（Aparri）

位于卡加延省北部沿海。该区域已进入强降雨预警范围，一旦出现局部洪涝或道路受阻，港口物流效率可能受到一定影响。

Subic Bay Port

As a vital deep-water hub in the Philippines, Subic Bay sits far from the projected typhoon centers, so the probability of direct impacts remains relatively low.

苏比克港（Subic Bay）

作为菲律宾重要深水港，苏比克港距离台风中心较远，直接受影响概率较低。

Nevertheless, continuous rainfall over northern Luzon could spill over to disrupt partial cargo transshipment and inland logistics.

但如果吕宋岛北部持续降雨，部分货物流转和内陆运输效率可能受到波及。

Manila Port

Manila Port faces potential risks mainly from prolonged rainfall rather than the typhoon core. Historically, intensified southwest monsoons or consecutive heavy rains may disrupt traffic around port precincts, which in turn could slow down container pick-up and return procedures.

马尼拉港（Manila）

马尼拉港面临的风险主要来自持续降雨而非台风中心。历史上每逢西南季风增强或连续强降雨天气，港区周边交通都可能受到一定影响，进而影响集装箱提还箱效率。

Critical Shipping Routes Facing Rough Sea Conditions and Potential Schedule Delays

哪些航线需要留意？

Current forecasts suggest the main impact will be rough sea conditions rather than large-scale port closures.

从当前路径来看，米克拉和海高斯对港口的影响主要集中在海况层面，而非大范围港口停摆。

Shipping Lanes to & from the Philippines at Risk of Rough Seas

菲律宾方向

Eastern offshore waters of the Philippines serve as the primary activity zone for early-stage Mekkhala.

菲律宾东部外海是米克拉前期活动的主要区域。

Feeder services connecting the Philippines and certain nearshore vessels may encounter rough seas. Regional shipping networks linking Manila, Cebu, Davao and other ports may require flexible schedule adjustments in response to shifting weather.

往返菲律宾的支线运输以及部分近海作业船舶可能受到风浪影响，特别是连接马尼拉、宿务、达沃等港口的区域运输网络，需要根据天气变化灵活调整船期。

Key relevant routes:

相关航线主要包括：

China-Philippines shipping lanes

中国—菲律宾航线；

Domestic Philippine feeder routes

菲律宾国内支线航线；

Partial sections of Southeast Asia-Japan lanes

东南亚—日本航线部分航段。

Routes Passing Ryukyu Islands and Southern Japan to Encounter Rising Waves

琉球群岛及日本方向

Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and Japanese meteorological authorities predict Mekkhala will move toward waters near the Ryukyu Islands before edging closer to southern Japan.

根据香港天文台及日本气象机构预报，米克拉未来将向琉球群岛附近海域移动，随后逐步接近日本南部。

Operators should prioritize monitoring these zones over the coming days:

因此未来几天需要重点关注：

Waters around Okinawa

冲绳附近海域；

Shipping routes across the Ryukyu Islands

琉球群岛航线；

Coastal lanes along southern Japan

日本南部沿海航线。

If the projected track holds steady, partial berthing schedules at southern Japanese ports may undergo revisions, while the exact severity of disruptions will hinge on subsequent shifts in typhoon intensity.

如果后续路径维持不变，日本南部部分港口可能出现靠泊计划调整，但具体影响程度仍取决于台风后续强度变化。

Trans-Pacific Corridors Exposed to Swells and Sudden Wind Gusts

跨太平洋航线

The Philippine Sea, Bashi Channel and waters adjacent to the Ryukyu Islands form critical shipping corridors linking Northeast Asia and North America.

菲律宾海、巴士海峡以及琉球群岛附近海域，是连接东北亚与北美的重要航运通道。

Huge volumes of container ships, tankers and LNG carriers transit this zone year-round. While large-scale route diversions have not yet emerged, shipping companies may optimize sailing paths in advance based on weather updates to mitigate risks to navigation safety and vessel schedules.

大量集装箱船、油轮和LNG船常年经过该区域。虽然目前尚未出现大规模绕航情况，但船公司通常会根据天气变化提前优化航线，以降低风浪对航行安全和船期的影响。

Bashi Channel Prone to Heavy Swells from Mekkhala’s Outer Wind Field

巴士海峡

Situated between Taiwan Island and Luzon Island of the Philippines, the Bashi Channel acts as a vital sea passage connecting the South China Sea, East China Sea and Philippine Sea.

巴士海峡位于台湾岛与菲律宾吕宋岛之间，是连接南海、东海和菲律宾海的重要海上通道。

The channel is widely used by vessels operating on routes such as:

大量船舶往返以下航线时都会经过这里：

South China-Japan lanes

华南—日本航线；

East China-Japan lanes

华东—日本航线；

Partial China-South Korea shipping sections

中国—韩国部分航线；

East Asia-North America Trans-Pacific routes

东亚—北美跨太平洋航线；

Southeast Asia-Japan lanes

东南亚—日本航线。

If Mekkhala continues to intensify, its outer wind radius may cover waters north of the Philippines. Even if the typhoon core stays clear of the Bashi Channel, vessels transiting the area could face heavy swells and strong gusts.

如果米克拉继续增强，其外围风圈可能覆盖菲律宾以北海域。即使台风中心不进入巴士海峡附近，船舶仍可能遭遇较大涌浪和强阵风。

Continuous Sea Condition Monitoring Required amid Two Developing Cyclones

风浪变化要注意

Mekkhala has passed its peak intensity stage and is now tracking toward Japan; Hinnamno, by contrast, has just formed and remains in its early developmental phase.

目前来看，米克拉已完成最强发展阶段，并开始向日本方向移动；海高斯则刚刚生成，仍处于发展初期。

Neither cyclone may make direct landfall along China’s coastline, yet waters including the Philippine Sea, Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan could remain under tropical cyclone influences for the next several days. Shipping enterprises are advised to closely track evolving sea conditions in the above zones, as well as the potential schedule revisions and operational adjustments that may follow.

两者均不会直接登陆我国沿海，但菲律宾海、琉球群岛及日本南部海域未来数日仍将受到热带气旋活动影响。对于航运企业来说，接下来需要重点关注相关海域风浪变化，以及由此带来的船期调整和航线运营变化。

References

参考资料

Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) - Tropical Cyclone Position: Typhoon Mekkhala

香港天文台（HKO）Tropical Cyclone Position —— Typhoon Mekkhala

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) - Tropical Cyclone Information

日本气象厅（JMA）Tropical Cyclone Information

PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletins

PAGASA（菲律宾大气地球物理和天文服务管理局）台风公报

Digital Typhoon（National Institute of Informatics, Japan）

Zoom Earth Tropical Cyclone Tracking Dataset

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*Disclaimer: All data and analysis contained in this article are compiled from public resources and industry research reports, offered solely for industry exchange and reference, and do not constitute investment advice or operational commitments. The shipping market is subject to uncertainties driven by macroeconomics, geopolitics and meteorological shifts. Readers should conduct comprehensive assessments combining their own fleet layout, risk tolerance and latest market trends before finalizing operational decisions.

*免责声明：本文所载数据及分析均基于公开信息和行业研究报告，仅供行业交流与参考，不构成任何投资建议或操作承诺。航运市场受宏观经济、地缘政治、天气变化等多重因素影响，存在不确定性。读者在制定具体经营决策时，应结合自身船队结构、风险承受能力及最新市场动态综合判断。